Ben’s Blog

It’s very hard to get unbiased information on how we’re doing in Iraq. The Republicans and Democrats aren’t going to be honest about the situation, and most of the media are just as bad.

I was glad to see this post on the Freakonomics blog today. Levitt summarizes a logical analysis of “the surge” by an MIT economist. To summarize it even further, the surge is making a difference in some areas, but it doesn’t seem to be making a long term difference.

The author’s main evidence on that front is the price of Iraqi government-issued bonds. If the government collapses the bonds won’t get paid. At the moment, the financial markets aren’t giving the government much of a chance based on the price of the bonds. Of course, financial markets do occasionally get things wrong, but they’re right more often than not.

Levitt also makes some interesting observations about academia at the end of the post.

Had I been at home last night I probably wouldn’t have watched the debate, but there isn’t a lot to do in Cassie’s hospital room. I’ve generally been of the opinion that Presidential debates don’t contain a lot of substance. Last night’s debate didn’t change my opinion, but I did find it interesting.

Let’s be honest, not all of the candidates that were in the debate have a chance to win the nomination. Giuliani, Romney, and McCain are obviously in the running. Giuliani and Romney are frontrunners, but were defensive on several issues last night; Giuliani more so than Romney. I thought McCain was pretty strong in the debate. I had previously written him off s a true contender. While I still don’t think he’ll get the nomination, it’s probably too early to give up on him.

I think Mike Huckabee should be added to the list of real contenders. He came in second in Iowa, and I would argue he won the debate tonight. I don’t agree with him on a lot of things, but I thought all of his answers were strong and he wasn’t defensive. (It is interesting to note that Huckabee was born in the same small Arkansas town as Bill Clinton.) While he has executive experience, he doesn’t have a lot of the political baggage that Giuliani and Romney do. He’s got a long way to go to get the nomination, but I think he has a shot.

As a libertarian, I found Ron Paul’s responses to be interesting and amusing. He’s way more hardcore than me, but I do agree with him on a lot of issues. Have a look at his Wikipedia page. Unfortunately, like a typical Libertarian, he doesn’t know how to make his proposals palatable for the average citizen. He has no shot at winning.

Unfortunately I still think we have pretty sad selection of candidates this time around, though both parties have candidates that are better than their 2004 nominations. The question is, will their nominations be better than 2004’s nominations? I expect Hillary will win the Democratic nomination, which frankly scares me a little bit. Even scarier is I don’t see a Republican candidate that can beat her in the general election. I’m still holding out hope that Michael Bloomberg will run as a independent.

Cassie’s surgery went well. She is now resting with the help of some Benadryl. The Benadryl is to help with the itching from the morphine. Fun stuff.

Luckily her room here at the Mississippi Surgery Center has Wifi. We’ll be headed home first thing in the morning as soon as Cassie’s doctor does his rounds.