Ben’s Blog

I’m a little late with this, but yes, we lost to South Carolina last weekend. We jumped out to a 14-3 lead, but just couldn’t hold on. We only scored 3 points in the second half.

Last week, after our win over Florida, I optimistically predicted we would go 7-5 this season. While that’s still a possibility, I’m going to revise my prediction to 6-6. That’s us losing to Alabama, Auburn, and LSU, and winning over Arkansas, Louisiana-Monroe, and Mississippi State. We could certainly beat Auburn, but I think our chances of winning are worse than our chances of losing. We could certainly get beat by Arkansas or Mississippi State too, but we should beat both of them based on the season so far. Being 6-6 would make us bowl eligible, but not guarantee a bowl game. If we were to beat Auburn, I feel like we’d definitely get one.

We will not lose this weekend; we’re off. Our next game is against Alabama the next weekend. They are now ranked No. 2 in the country. It has just been announced that we’ll be humiliated in front of a national audience at 2:30pm on CBS that Saturday. Please forgive my pecimism.

Ole Miss beat No. 4 Florida 31-30 on Saturday. It was a combination of a bad day from Florida, some opportunistic plays by Ole Miss, a blocked extra point in the fourth quarter, and a little luck. Surprisingly, we’ve beaten Florida three out of the last four times we’ve played them, including the last two games in Florida. I doubt our recent record against any other SEC opponent is that good, possibly excepting Vanderbilt.

Our upset of Florida and some of the other games that took place this weekend force me to reevaluate my predictions for the rest of the year. We are currently 3-2, 3 wins from being bowl eligible. Louisiana-Monroe should be a “gimme,” so we only need to beat two of South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, and Mississippi State.

I’m going to go ahead and count Alabama and LSU as loses. Yes, upsets happen, as we can see, but they are unlikely. South Carolina is very beatable. Arkansas continues to have a horrible year (52-10 loss to Texas), so we should beat them. While Auburn is winning for the most part, they haven’t been too impressive. An upset against them is looking less unlikely. Mississippi State is a wild card just like most years.

We could have a 7-5 year by beating 3 of South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn, and Mississippi State, and that doesn’t look as unlikely as it did a few weeks ago. Is 7-5 optimistic? Yes. Could it happen. Absolutely. This week’s game against South Carolina will tell us a lot.

This year’s SEC West champ will almost certainly be LSU or Alabama. In addition to each other, LSU has Florida and Georgia remaining, while Alabama has Auburn.

With the upset of USC, Geogia, and Florida this weekend, the top 25 looks a lot different. Oklahoma is now No. 1, despite the fact the only ranked team they’ve played is no longer ranked. They still have to play Texas (No. 5) and Texas Tech (No. 7). Alabama and LSU are two and three, respectively.

The first BCS rankings (boo) will be out in three weeks.

This weekend Ole Miss lost to Vanderbilt, the perennial whipping boy of the SEC, at home no less. We did it in style too, with six turnovers. It’s hard to beat a good junior high team when you hand them six turnovers.

Looking at the rest of the schedule, we’re going to be doing good to get a six win season, which would make us bowl eligible. Assuming a win over Louisiana-Monroe and losses to Florida, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU, that leaves only the South Carolina, Arkansas, and Mississippi State games in question. Winning all three of those games would make us 6-6. We should win all three of those games, but we should have beaten Vanderbilt too.

Beating us put Vanderbilt at no. 21 in the Associated Press poll. That’s the first time in 24 years that Vanderbilt has been in the top 25. Currently the SEC has 3 teams in the top 5, 4 teams in the top 10, and 5 in the top 15. Not too shabby.

It looks like the SEC will come down to Georgia, Florida, and LSU. They are ranked 3, 4, and 5, respectively, in the AP Top 25. They will all play each other in the next month. It should be fun to watch. Auburn has a chance to climb back into the mix depending on what happens.

It’s become public knowledge that the SEC is the toughest football conference in the country. The New York Times (of all places) has an article about why the current national championship system doesn’t give the SEC a fair shake.

Ole Miss led Wake Forest for most of the game, only to have the lead taken away in the fourth quarter. We then mounted a comeback drive, scoring a touchdown with just over a minute left, only to let Wake Forest drive down the field and kick a field goal to win the game.

Disappointing? Yes, but looking on the positive side of things, we had a chance to beat a team ranked 20th in the nation. If we had won, it would have been an impressive upset. The future looks bright.

Looking down the schedule, Vanderbilt is looking like less of a “gimme.” (See my last football post.) They upset South Carolina 24-17 on Thursday night. Arkansas, on the other hand, continued their rough season. This week they barely beat Louisiana-Monroe and after barely beating Western Illinois last week. You can get they’ll be up for playing their old coach though. We should beat Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Arkansas (along with the “gimmes”) if we play the way we are capable of playing (never a given).

It’s hard to tell much about Mississippi State just yet. They got beat by Louisiana Tech the first week, but convincingly beat Southeastern Louisiana (another cream puff team) this week. Seeing them get murdered by Auburn next weekend isn’t going to tell me much either. On the other hand, it really doesn’t matter. You can usually throw records out the window when Ole Miss and State play each other.

Last night Ole Miss won its first football game of the season 41-24 over Memphis. We were supposed to win the game, but given the last few seasons we’ve had, it’s always good to get that first one out of the way. It was also coach Houston Nutt’s first game as a Rebel.

Looking at our schedule, we should beat Samford, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana-Monroe. Vandy isn’t the gimme they used to be, but we should still win. I give us 50/50 odds against Wake Forest (next weekend), South Carolina, Arkansas, and Mississippi State. That gives us anywhere between four and eight wins. Most Ole Miss fans would be thrilled with six wins and a bowl game.

Mississippi State got beat by Louisiana Tech 22-14 yesterday. I was amused. A lot of Ole Miss and State fans claim that they always pull for the other team when they aren’t playing their team. I’m not one of them, and I think most of them are lying.

I was disheartened to see Alabama beat Clemson yesterday. I’ve always had a distaste for Alabama. I think it runs in my family. I had enjoyed the last couple of years without having to put up with their fans. Oh well.